The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of July 2022.
- Globally, July 2022 was the 4th warmest July since records began in 1850.
- Warm conditions occurred around the Mediterranean, parts of Asia, South America, Antarctica, and several parts of the Pacific Ocean.
- Unusually cool conditions were present in the Equatorial Pacific, Northern Australia, and land areas bordering the Arabian Sea.
- Mild to moderate La Niña conditions are present and likely to continue.
- 2022 is likely to the be the 4th or 5th warmest year.
Notice: Due to persistent delays with the HadSST ocean data normally used by Berkeley Earth, this update uses ocean data from Copernicus. See the discussion at the end for further information.
Global Summary
Globally, July 2022 has been the fourth warmest July since records began in 1850. This July is slightly cooler than the three previous Julys, in 2019, 2020, and 2021, but slightly warmer than July 2016, 2017, and 2018. All other previously observed years had a July significantly cooler than in 2022.
The global mean temperature in July 2022 was 0.84 ± 0.08 °C (1.51 ± 0.14 °F) above the 1951 to 1980 average.
This is equivalent to being 1.18 ± 0.10 °C (2.12 ± 0.18 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, which is frequently used as a benchmark for the preindustrial period.
The global mean temperature anomaly in July 2022 was a slight decrease from June 2022 and similar to several other recent months. Temperatures in July were close to the long-term trend line despite the cooling effect of the ongoing La Niña conditions.
Spatial Variation
July 2022 continues the ongoing pattern of widespread warmth, though with some notable exceptions. Particularly warm conditions were present around the Mediterranean, in parts of Asia and Antarctica, and also in South America. Record setting warmth was also present in significant portions of the North and South Pacific Ocean. Particularly cool conditions were present in the Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean as well as portions of Antarctica and in land regions bordering the Arabian Sea.
We estimate that 5.3% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest July average, and 71% of the Earth’s surface was significantly warm when compared to their local average during the period 1951 to 1980. In addition, 0.05% of the Earth’s surface had their locally coldest July.
The cool area in the Eastern Pacific is consistent with the ongoing La Niña conditions.
Over land regions, 2022 was the 4th warmest July, falling markedly below July 2021, but similar to several other recent years. The land average was 1.15 ± 0.10 °C (2.10 ± 0.18 °F) above the 1951 to 1980 average.
July 2022 was the 7th warmest July in the oceans, recorded as 0.66 ± 0.09 °C (1.18 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1951 to 1980 average. This relatively low rank is influenced by the cooling effects of the ongoing La Niña event.
La Niña
July 2022 had well-defined weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The La Niña phenomenon, associated with relatively cool water in the Eastern equatorial Pacific, is a form of seasonal weather variability that is generally associated with cooler global average temperatures. The current La Niña event began in 2020 and has exhibited surprising longevity. This La Niña is more likely than not to continue into the next year. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that either La Niña or neutral conditions are most likely over the rest of the year, with only a < 10% chance of a shift to El Niño conditions before the middle of next year.
Year to Date
With the exception on June, most of the months in 2022 have been significantly cooler than their corresponding monthly records. Nonetheless, every month has been at least 1.1 °C warmer than the 1850-1900 average. As a result, 2022 is currently positioned as the 5th warmest year.
The most prominent spatial features of year to date temperatures are the cool La Niña pattern, warmth over Asia, and record warmth in the North and South Pacific. Parts of Western Europe, including the UK, have also seen record or near-record temperatures when averaging January through July.
Rest of 2022
The ongoing La Niña event makes it likely that 2022 will be cooler than recent record warm years; however, 2022 is nearly certain to remain within the top eight warmest years overall. If La Niña dissipates, the annual average might be expected to warm some during the second half of 2022 compared to the first half of the year, but the full year is very unlikely to challenge the previous record warm years.
The statistical approach that we use, looking at conditions in recent months, believes that 2022 is most likely to be the 4th or 5th warmest year in the instrumental record, with about a 74% chance of one of these outcomes. It is very unlikely (< 1%) that the remainder of 2022 warms enough for 2022 to be within the top 3 warmest years. It is also very unlikely that 2022 will be any cooler than the 8th warmest, which means that this year is very likely to still surpass all years prior to 2015.
Likelihood of final 2022 ranking:
- 1st place (< 1 %)
- Top 3 overall (< 1 %)
- 4th place (28 %)
- 5th place (46 %)
- 6th, 7th, or 8th place (26 %)
- Top 8 overall (> 99 %)
Methodology
The Berkeley Earth global temperature data set is ordinarily a combination of Berkeley Earth land surface temperature data and an interpolated ocean sea surface temperature field derived from the HadSST4 data set. The HadSST data set is built upon multiple third-party data collections of direct ocean temperature measurements from ships, buoys, and other platforms. During most of 2021, HadSST updates were frequently subject to delays of weeks or months due to delays in the third-party data sources that it relied on. Due to these delays, Berkeley Earth updates were also frequently delayed.
Due to the ongoing pattern of delays, we have taken the unusual step of preparing this monthly temperature report using an alternative set of sea surface temperature data. The data set adopted for this purpose is the sea surface temperature data from the Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis. This alternative data is only used for July 2022 during which HadSST4 is not yet available. The ERA5 data has been reprocessed to make it more similar to the resolution of our previous analysis and local anomaly baselines have adjusted to match the 1980 to 2021 period in HadSST4.
We believe that this substitute data should provide a good indication of current global ocean conditions.
However, due to difference between ERA5 and HadSST4, we do observe more small-scale variation in the data processed this way and estimates of temperature ranks for assessing local records may sometimes be unreliable in the ocean. In addition, we have increased the reported uncertainty on the ocean averages to include an estimate of the systematic differences between HadSST4 and ERA5.
Though we have adopted ERA5 ocean data for these reports in order to provide timely temperature updates, the gridded data sets appearing on the Berkeley Earth website will continue to use only HadSST as described in the associated documentation. As a result, updates to some of the gridded data sets are likely to continue to be delayed.
