The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of June 2025.
- June 2025 was the third warmest June on record, with a global average of 1.31 ± 0.10 °C (2.36 ± 0.19 °F) above the 1850-1900 average.
- Land temperatures averaged 1.65 ± 0.15 °C (2.97 ± 0.28 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, ranking as the fifth warmest June for terrestrial regions.
- Ocean temperatures were 0.99 ± 0.09 °C (1.79 ± 0.15 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, making it the third warmest June for ocean surfaces.
- A particularly strong warm anomaly in the Western Mediterranean caused record breaking temperatures for this region.
- ENSO-neutral conditions continue, with an 84% probability of neutral conditions persisting through August.
- 3.3% of Earth’s surface experienced a record high June monthly average (1.8% and 4.0% of land and ocean surfaces respectively).
- 2025 now has a 64% chance to be the third warmest year on record and an 18% chance to have an annual average above 1.5 °C.
Global Summary
June 2025 was the third warmest June on record, with a monthly global average of 1.31 ± 0.10 °C (2.36 ± 0.19 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. This places June 2025 behind June 2023 and June 2024, but ahead of all other Junes prior to 2023.
Month-to-month temperatures in June show a modest cooling relative to May, but continue the sharp cooling trend observed since January. After a two year period of significant warmth, both May and June 2025 have fallen below the long-term trend.
This is the second consecutive month below 1.5°C, marking the first two-month period below 1.5°C in two years. After anomalously strong warmth in 2023 and 2024, it appears that 2025 may be tracking a more typical path, more consistent with the gradually rising temperatures in prior years.
Even with the cooling over the past 3 months, the 12-month moving average remains well above the long-term trend line. However, it appears clear that the short-term natural variability contributing to anomalous warmth in 2023 & 2024 has now peaked, and we expect the 12-month average will soon return towards the trend line, or even move somewhat below it. Short-term variability is an inherent part of the weather and climate and is to be expected even alongside persistent long-term global warming.
Spatial Variation
In June 2025, elevated temperatures were present in Europe, Morocco and the Western Sahara, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, and large portions of Asia. Cold anomalies were present in South America, India, Eastern Europe/West Asia, Australia, and Antarctica.
Approximately 3.3% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest June on record (1.8% and 4.0% of land and ocean surfaces respectively). We estimate that the following nine countries set national average monthly records in June: Ethiopia, Federated States of Micronesia, Japan, Morocco, Nigeria, North Korea, Slovenia, Spain, and Western Sahara.
The Western Mediterranean Sea also experienced record warmth in June 2025. This marine heat wave is due to combination of short-term natural variability along with a substantial long-term warming trend. The Mediterranean, which is flanked by Europe and Africa, has a long-term warming trend whose magnitude is more similar to what we expect from land regions than what we typically see from marine regions.
The record warmth in the Western Mediterranean in June 2025 is also the 2nd largest excursion from the long-term trend in the last several decades. The only larger excursion occurring in June 2003. That excursion preceded a series of brutal heat waves in July and August 2003 that killed ~70,000 Europeans. While not guaranteed, the current extreme warmth in the Western Mediterranean may also be predisposing Europe to strong heatwaves during the rest of this summer.
Over land regions, June 2025 was the fifth warmest June since 1850, with a terrestrial average of 1.65 ± 0.15 °C (2.97 ± 0.28 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This places land temperatures in June 2025 as very similar to May 2025, both of which are sharply cooler than the exceptional warmth over land seen in the previous 2 years.
Average ocean temperatures in June 2025 were equal to 0.99 ± 0.09 °C (1.79 ± 0.15 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This was the third warmest June for the ocean average.
Ocean temperatures also remain similar to May 2025, continuing the downward trend since the 2023/2024 El Niño event.
ENSO Neutral
As of June 2025, the equatorial Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state. Relative to the rest of the ocean, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are mildly below average, but not cold enough to presently be considered part of a La Niña event. A brief La Niña was declared early in 2025, but has since ended.
Forecast models suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are highly likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. The IRI/CPC forecast gives an 82-84% probability of neutral conditions for the June-August 2025 period. Looking towards the end of the year, neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome, though the probability decreases. For the October-December 2025 period, the forecast indicates a 49% chance of neutral conditions, with a growing possibility of a transition to La Niña. For more information, see the Climate Prediction Center report here.
2025 Outlook
Based on the first half of 2025 and historical trends, our forecast for the 2025 annual average has been reduced. It is now very unlikely that 2025 will be the warmest year on record, with 2025 likely to rank as either the 3rd or 2nd warmest year.
Prior to the start of 2025, we had forecast a 6% chance of record warmth in 2025. Following the unexpected record warmth in January and March 2025, this chance had briefly climbed as high as 34%, but subsequent cooling, especially in May and June, has eliminated nearly all chance of a record annual average during 2025.
At present, we consider there to be an 18% chance that 2025 will have an annual-average temperature anomaly more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above our 1850-1900 average, and is more likely to be slightly below the 1.5 °C threshold.
Estimated Probability of 2025 annual average final rankings:
- 1st – 1%
- 2nd – 35%
- 3rd – 64%
- 4th or lower – < 1%
