Berkeley, CA – Berkeley Earth, a leading independent climate research organization, today released its 2024 Annual Temperature Report, finding that the world experienced its warmest year on record. With an annual global average temperature of 1.62°C (2.91°F) above the pre-industrial baseline(1850-1900), more than 3 billion people experienced their hottest year since record-keeping began.
The record warmth surpassed the previous record set in 2023 by a clear margin.
These results mark the first year in the Berkeley Earth record where a global average temperature exceeded 1.6°C (2.91°F) above the pre-industrial average, making it the second year to finish above the politically significant 1.5°C warming threshold.
The warming spike from 2023/2024 suggests an increase in warming rates, at least in the short term, as both years have deviated significantly from the long-term linear warming trend evidenced over the past 50 years. Uncertainty still remains around whether the short-term acceleration will become a longer-term trend.
“The abrupt new records set in 2023 and 2024 join other evidence that recent global warming appears to be moving faster than expected. Whether increased global warming is a temporary change or part of a new long-term trend remains to be seen,,” said Dr. Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth. “Already though the Paris Agreement target of staying below 1.5°C is unobtainable, and the long-term average will pass this milestone within the next five to 10 years.”
Global warming is primarily attributable to humans via greenhouse gas emissions, which reached an all-time high in 2024, combined with a variety of natural factors that contribute to natural short-term variability in the climate system.The current warming spike is partly due to the transition from cooler La Niña conditions to the warmer El Niño pattern during 2023, which contributed to record warmth in 2023 and 2024. However, neither greenhouse gases nor El Niño fully explain the warming in 2023 and 2024. Changes in low cloud cover and reductions in aerosol pollution appear to be additional causes.
More Than 3 Billion People Experienced Record High Temperatures in 2024
Berkeley Earth’s proprietary data processing approach allows for the incorporation of more temperature observations for more locations, resulting in a temperature data set with a higher spatial resolution than others of its kind. This allows for more nuanced insights into the nature of warming at local and regional scales.
Using a high resolution approach, Berkeley Earth’s report estimates that 104 countries had their locally warmest year on record, including Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Singapore, and South Korea. Given the distribution of record warmth in 2024, it’s estimated that 3.3 billion people — about 40% of the Earth’s population —live in places that experienced the warm local annual average in 2024.
Berkeley Earth estimates that 2025 will likely be the third warmest year on record, due to an expected cooling pattern in the Equatorial Pacific.
Record Warmth Suggests Urgent Need for More Accurate Local Modeling Tools
Recent rates of warming and grossly inadequate mitigation efforts make it clear that the 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warming threshold established by the Paris Agreement will be surpassed, and the long-term average global warming will likely cross this threshold in the next five to10 years, Rohde estimates. More aggressive efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would be necessary to avoid even higher levels of warming and to mitigate more significant impacts from extreme weather events.
“Given the apparent increase in warming, and the uncertainty around future warming rates, the need for access to accurate and reliable data and modeling tools to inform adaptation and resilience planning is more important than ever,” said Berkeley Earth Executive Director Kristen Sissener. “We need to prioritize discussions around adapting to future warming alongside our continued work to urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
Berkeley Earth plans to release a new data product to improve the accuracy and accessibility of climate models for local stakeholders later this year, significantly expanding access to crucial data for more effective and efficient adaptation planning. More information about this product will be available soon.
About Berkeley Earth
Berkeley Earth is a California-based 501(c)(3) non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the understanding of the Earth’s climate system through independent scientific research, open-source data products, and effective science communication. Founded in 2013, the organization has led the development and application of AI and advanced statistical methods in the analysis of environmental data. Berkeley Earth’s approach to climate science combines rigorous data analysis with a transparent methodology, providing clear, accessible, and open-source information about climate change and its implications. Berkeley Earth’s work is widely respected across academia, media, policy, and industry for its commitment to scientific excellence and public engagement.
Contact: Kristen Sissener, Executive Director, media@berkeleyearth.org, 415.890.6026
