The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of April 2025.
- April 2025 was the second warmest April on record, with a global average temperature of 1.49 ± 0.12 °C (2.67 ± 0.22 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, behind April 2024 by 0.07 °C.
- Land temperatures averaged 2.35 ± 0.19 °C (4.23 ± 0.33 °F), effectively tying the record set in April 2024 and marking the warmest start to a year (January – April).
- Oceans experienced the third warmest April, with an average of 1.01 ± 0.10 °C (1.81 ± 0.18 °F)
- The ENSO neutral state continues and will likely persist throughout June-August.
- 4% of Earth’s surface experienced a record high April monthly average.
- 2025 now has an 18% chance to be the warmest year on record, 53% chance to be the second warmest, and a 52% chance to have an annual average above 1.5 °C.
Global Summary
The April 2025 anomaly average measured 1.49 ± 0.12 °C (2.67 ± 0.22 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, making it the second warmest April on record, just 0.07 °C cooler than April 2024. This data comes from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High Resolution (BEST-HR) dataset and aligns with the findings from Copernicus (which reported an April temperature anomaly of 1.51 °C, again 0.07 °C cooler than April 2024), NOAA, and NASA which all reported April as nominally the second warmest April on record.
For the last four months global temperatures have decreased, further approaching the long-term trend, represented here by the 30-year LOESS running average.
21 of the last 22 months have been above or within uncertainty of the 1.5 °C benchmark outlined by the Paris agreement. Beginning in July 2023, only May 2024 has recorded a global temperature anomaly significantly below 1.5 °C.
The 12-month running average remains well above the long-term trend, but has begun to decrease after the anomalously warm 2023 and 2024 record-breaking years.
Spatial Variation
In April 2025, elevated temperatures were present across the Arctic, Eurasia, the Middle East, and West Antarctica. Cold anomalies were present in the Greenland Sea and East Antarctica.
Approximately 4% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest April on record (3.2% and 4.5% of land and ocean surfaces respectively). Specific record breaking areas include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Eastern China, Northeast Russia, and the Northeast Atlantic.
The Middle East is one area that saw record warmth in April. The national average in Iran set a new April record by about 0.4 °C (0.7 °F) above the previous record, in large part due to a long-term trend which has locally warmed more than 2 °C (3.8 °F) since 1960. Weather fluctuations that occur within a background of long-term global warming are more likely to set new records, even if the scale of the weather variability is not otherwise unusual. As a result, what would have been an unremarkable amount of warm weather can easily become record-breaking weather.
Over land regions, 2025 was nominally the warmest April since 1850, with a terrestrial average of 2.35 ± 0.19 °C (4.23 ± 0.33 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, effectively tying the record set in April 2024. Additionally, this is the warmest start to a year for land temperatures, with a 4 month average (January – April) of 2.36 ± 0.18 °C (4.24 ± 0.32 °F) slightly exceeding the previous January-April land-only record set in 2016.
Average ocean temperatures in April 2025 were equal to 1.01 ± 0.1 °C (1.81 ± 0.18 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This was the third warmest April for the ocean average, behind 2024 and 2023. Ocean temperatures have continued to decrease and have fallen to match the long term trend line.
12-month temperature anomalies remain prevalent across the northern hemisphere, with salient features in North East Canada, the Arctic Ocean, and Russia.
Looking back at the prior 12 months, record breaking May – April averages are observed across the globe, on every continent except Antarctica and in each ocean basin. While the record warmth in 2024 obviously plays a large role in the record 12-month averages, the lack of substantial cooling during the first months of 2025 has also help keep the 12-month averages at or near record levels.
ENSO Neutral Continues
After a brief, weak La Niña event, the current ENSO state is in a neutral condition with temperature deviations in the Central Pacific less than 0.5 °C from the long-term average value. For more information, see the Climate Prediction Center report here.
The current long-range ENSO forecasts are divided but generally favor the continuation of the current neutral state. CPC estimates that there is greater than a 50% chance that the neutral state will continue throughout the summer. ENSO Neutral are modestly favored to continue through the end of the year, however a return to La Niña is also a substantial possibility, with a smaller chance of a new El Niño event developing late in 2025.
Rest of 2025
The probability that 2025 will be the warmest year on record has decreased from 34% to 18% and we now calculate a 53% chance that 2025 will be the second warmest year on record. In addition, 2025 has a 52% chance to be above 1.5 °C.
Estimated Probability of 2025 annual average final rankings:
- 1st – 18%
- 2nd – 53%
- 3rd – 29%
- 4th or lower – < 1%
