february

February 2026 was the 2nd warmest February on record behind 2024. La Niña is fading and El Niño is expected to return in coming months. There is a 16% chance that 2026 become a record warm year.

May 2025 was the 2nd warmest May on record behind 2024. The chance of record warmth in 2025 has declined to 5%. An ENSO neutral condition persists and is expected to continue throughout the summer.

April 2025 is the second warmest April on record, behind April 2024 by 0.07 °C. 2025 has a 53% chance to be the second warmest year on record, and a 52% to be above 1.5 °C.

March 2025 tied 2024 and 2016 for the warmest March on record. 2025 has a 34% chance to be a record-breaking year. ENSO transitioned to a neutral state.

February 2025 was the third warmest February on record, behind 2024 and 2020. However, there is now a ~38% chance that 2025 will be the warmest year on record, which is 8% more than the estimate made last month.

Globally, February 2024 was the warmest February since record-keeping began in 1850, breaking the previous record by a small margin. This year is very likely to become either the warmest or 2nd warmest on record.