The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of May 2025.
- Temperatures have dropped sharply this month, with a global average of 1.33 ± 0.11°C (2.39 ± 0.19 °F) above the 1850-1900 average (still the second warmest May on record).
- Cooling primarily occurred on land with a sharply cooler monthly average of 1.62 ± 0.18°C (2.91 ± 0.32°F), 0.63°C cooler than the previous month.
- Ocean temperatures averaged 0.99 ± 0.12°C (1.78 ± 0.22°F), the third warmest May on record.
- May 2025 concludes the second warmest March-April-May on record (spring in the Northern Hemisphere).
- ENSO neutral continues, with > 50% of persisting throughout August-October.
- 4% of Earth’s surface experienced a record high May monthly average.
- 2025 now only has a 6% chance to be the warmest year on record, 50% chance to be the second warmest, and a 43% chance to have an annual average above 1.5 °C.
Global Summary
May 2025 was the second warmest May on record, with a monthly global average of 1.33 ± 0.11°C (2.39 ± 0.19 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. This is well below the record set in May 2024, but still above all previous years.
Month-to-month, temperatures in May declined a relatively large 0.15°C (0.27 °F) compared to April. For the first time since 2023, temperatures have dropped below the 30-year LOESS running average. These changes are primarily due to a decrease in land temperatures in May.
Temperatures have also dropped below the 1.5°C benchmark for the first time since May 2024.
The 12-month running average continues to drop after record the highs of 2023 and 2024, yet still remains above the long term trend.
This was the second warmest March-May period on record (e.g. Northern Hemisphere spring), with a 3-month average of 1.46 ± 0.11 °C (2.62 ± 0.19°F).
Spatial Variation
Elevated temperatures were present across the Arctic, Canada, West Antarctica, the Middle East, Asia, and the North Atlantic near the UK and Ireland. Unusually cold anomalies were present in Eastern Europe, East Antarctica, and India.
Approximately 4% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest May on record (1% and 5% of land and ocean surfaces respectively). Countries with record high monthly averages in May included Bahrain, Federated States of Micronesia, Iran, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Somalia, Vanuatu, and Yemen.
India experienced a particularly strong cold anomaly. For much of India, May is typically the warmest month of the year, though record high precipitation and an early monsoon onset contributed to relatively mild conditions in 2025. The heatwaves typical of May in India never developed in most of the country.
Notably, areas in northern Maharashtra and southwestern Madhya Pradesh experienced their coolest May in over a century amidst unusually frequent and intense thunderstorms.
Globally, May 2025 was the fifth warmest May on record for land temperatures, with an average of 1.62 ± 0.18°C (2.91 ± 0.32°F).
This marks a sharp drop compared to recent months, and a 0.63°C decrease compared to April 2025. The change relative to April was mostly due to relatively cooler conditions in a number of northern land areas, especially parts of Asia. The temperature shift on land from April to May is the third largest April to May cooling shift on record.
Average ocean temperatures in May 2025 were equal to 0.99 ± 0.12 (1.78 ± 0.22°F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This was the third warmest May for the ocean average, behind 2024 and 2023.
Ocean temperatures have continued to decrease since their El Niño related peak in 2023/2024 and have now fallen below the trend line.
ENSO Neutral
The ENSO state remains neutral, with temperature deviations less than 0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
CPC estimates that there is greater than a 50% chance that the neutral state will continue throughout August-October. A significant probability remains that a La Niña state will develop next winter, with a smaller probability (<15%) of a return to El Niño conditions. For more information, see the Climate Prediction Center report here.
2025 Outlook
The record warmth from 2023 / 2024 persisted longer than initially expected, but now appears to the likely to be dissipating, potentially returning the Earth to a more moderate condition, but continuing along the long-term path of global warming.
Due to the recent sharply cooler land temperatures and the decreasing likelihood of El Niño returning this year, the outlook for the rest of 2025 has shifted modestly cooler. The probability that 2025 will be the warmest year on record has decreased from 18% to 6%. Further, we now estimate a 50% chance that 2025 will be the second warmest year on record, and a 45% chance it will the third warmest.
In addition, 2025 has a 43% chance to be above 1.5 °C.
Estimated Probability of 2025 annual average final rankings:
- 1st – 5.8%
- 2nd – 50%
- 3rd – 45%
- 4th or lower – < 1%
