The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of February 2025.
- The global average for February 2025 is 1.49 ± 0.12 °C (2.69 +/- 0.21 °F). This marks the second monthly average below the 1.5°C threshold in the past 20 months.
- 2025 was the third warmest February on record, behind 2024 and 2016.
- Global averages temperatures cooled sharply relative to January, but remain warmer than expected given the ongoing La Niña event.
- The current weak La Niña shows signs of fading and may end soon.
- 2025 now has a 38% chance of being the warmest year on record (up 8% from last month).
- Only 5.1% of Earth’s surface (and 1.8% of land) was record warm in February.
Global Summary
Globally, February 2025 was the third warmest February since directly measured instrumental records began in 1850, behind 2024 and 2016. February 2025 was measured as 1.49 ± 0.12 °C (2.69 ± 0.21 °F) above the corresponding 1850-1900 average.
February 2025 was sharply cooler than January and marks a return towards the long-term trend line. This shift is most likely due to the weak La Niña event that established itself December, as well as weather events that led to sharp cooling over some land areas relative to January. February was the second monthly average in 20 months that is below the 1.5 °C threshold.
Temperatures are still surprisingly warm given the presence of a La Niña event. This was the warmest February during a La Niña event since 1950.
Spatial Variation
February 2025 exhibited warm temperature anomalies over Russia, the Arctic, the Southern United States, Mexico, and Argentina. Unusually cold conditions were present over part of the United States and Canada, continuing a cold weather pattern than began in January. Relatively Cold temperatures also occurred in the Middle East.
We estimate that 5.1% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest February average (1.8% from land and 6.8% from the ocean). By contrast, only 0.01% of the Earth’s surface had their locally coldest February.
With less than 2% of land areas having their warmest February, it is unsurprising that very few countries set national average records in February. Only three countries had a record warm national average in February: Argentina, Comoros, and El Salvador.
Over land regions, 2025 was the sixth warmest February since 1850, behind 2024, 2020, 2017, 2016, and 1998. The land average was 1.96 +/- 0.24 °C (3.53 +/- 0.42 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average.
February 2025 was the second warmest February in the ocean behind only 2024, with average temperatures equal to 1.06 +/- 0.13 °C (1.89 +/- 0.24 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average.
The 12-month anomaly map continues to show warm temperatures in North East Canada, Russia, North America, Eastern Europe, and Asia. Record breaking 12 month March – February averages have been observed in South America (Amazon), Mexico, Canada, Africa (Congo), Europe, Russia, China, and the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. No regions have significant relative cooling during this period.
Record breaking 12 month March – February averages have been observed in North West Canada, Columbia, Brazil, Mexico, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Libya, and large swaths of Russia, China, and Mongolia. Record annual averages were also observed within regions of each ocean basin .
December to February (Northern Winter / Southern Summer)
The last three months, December 2024 to February 2025, corresponding to Northern Hemisphere winter and Southern Hemisphere summer were the second warmest such period since 1850, only slightly behind the record set last year. Above average temperatures were present nearly everywhere over the last three months, but were especially prominent in the Northern high-latitude land areas.
La Niña State and Forecast
The current La Niña began in December, and already shows signs of weakening with developed cool areas limited to the Central Pacific and warm temperatures beginning to return to the Eastern Pacific.
Forecasts generally expect that Central Pacific temperatures will hover close to the -0.5 °C La Niña threshold during coming months, either as a weak La Niña or as neutral conditions slightly warmer than the La Niña threshold. Slight warming may cause neutral conditions to formally replace La Niña as early as March, or the weak La Niña may continue through much of 2025. A transition back to an ENSO neutral state is more likely than not before the end of May (66% chance). A modest chance (20%) of a return to El Niño by the end of 2025 is also considered possible.
The continuation of La Niña and/or neutral conditions would be likely to keep 2025 modestly cooler than 2024.
Rest of 2025
It is more likely than not that 2025 will be cooler than 2024, but a substantial chance of a new record continues to exist. We now calculate that 2025 has a 38% chance of being warmer than 2024, which would be the third consecutive warmest year on record. This prediction is 8% higher than the prediction made in January. The probability increase is likely due to the unusually warm temperatures relative to the ongoing La Niña event, as well as the increasing odds that La Niña could end soon.
If La Niña persists, 2025 is likely to be cooler than 2024. By contrast an early end to La Niña or a transition to El Niño late in the year would make an annual average record more likely.
Estimated Probability of 2025 annual average final rankings:
- 1st – 38%
- 2nd – 45%
- 3rd – 17%
- 4th or lower – < 1%
