The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of July 2025.
- July 2025 was the third warmest July on record behind 2023 and 2024, with a global average of 1.29 ± 0.11 °C (2.32 ± 0.19 °F) above the 1850-1900 average.
- Land temperatures averaged 1.54 ± 0.16 °C (2.77 ± 0.29 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, ranking as the 9th warmest July for terrestrial regions.
- Ocean temperatures were 1.07 ± 0.10 °C (1.93 ± 0.18 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, making it the third warmest July for ocean surfaces.
- ENSO-neutral continues with a 56% chance to persist through October, with a return to La Niña more likely than not later this year.
- 5.2% of Earth’s surface experienced a record high July monthly average (4.0% and 5.7% of land and ocean surfaces respectively).
- 2025 now has a 88% chance to be the third warmest year on record and a 4.2% chance to have an annual average above 1.5 °C.
Global Summary
July 2025 was the third warmest July on record, with a monthly global average of 1.29 ± 0.11 °C (2.32 ± 0.19 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. This places July 2025 significantly behind the extreme warmth of 2023 and 2024, but ahead of every July prior to 2023.
Month-to-month temperatures slip slightly cooler in July 2025. This continues the relative cooling trend observed during most of 2025 and has taken monthly temperatures further below the long-term trend.
This is the third consecutive month below 1.5°C. Adjusted for a gradual warming, recent months have largely tracked the typical behavior from 2010-2022, and seem to be avoiding the anomalously large June to December warming seen in 2024 and 2025.
Even with the cooling over the past few months, the 12-month moving average remains well above the long-term trend line. However, it appears clear that the short-term natural variability contributing to anomalous warmth in 2023 & 2024 has peaked, and we expect the 12-month average will soon return towards the trend line, or even move somewhat below it. Short-term variability is an inherent part of the weather and climate and is to be expected even alongside persistent long-term global warming.
Spatial Variation
In July 2025, elevated temperatures were prevalent across parts of Asia, northern Europe (Norway and Sweden), Northern Africa, central Brazil, the Eastern United States, and parts of the Northern Pacific. Cold anomalies were present in much of Antarctica.
Approximately 5.2% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest July on record (4.0% and 5.7% of land and ocean surfaces respectively), with persistent record warmth in the Northern mid-latitude oceans being a remarkably consistent feature of recent weather patterns..
Over land regions, July 2025 was the ninth warmest July since 1850, with a terrestrial average of 1.54 ± 0.16 °C (2.77 ± 0.29 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This is sharply cooler than the record warmth in 2024, and the coolest July on land since 2017. This continues the pattern of sharply cooler land averages seen in May and June as land average temperatures remain well below both the recent records and the long-term trend.
Average ocean temperatures in July 2025 were equal to 1.07 ± 0.10 °C (1.93 ± 0.18 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This was the third warmest July for the ocean (behind 2023 and 2024). Average ocean temperatures in July ticked up somewhat from June, but remain well below the El Niño related highs of 2023 and 2024.
ENSO Neutral
As of July 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state with a slight cooling towards a possible return to La Niña conditions.
Forecast models suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere summer. Towards the end of the year, La Niña conditions are now more likely than not, before returning to a neutral state early in 2026. For more information, see the Climate Prediction Center report here.
2025 Outlook
Based on the first half of 2025 and historical trends, our forecast for the 2025 annual average has been reduced. It is now very unlikely that 2025 will be the warmest year on record, with 2025 most likely to rank as the 3rd warmest year.
Prior to the start of 2025, we had forecast a 6% chance of record warmth in 2025. Following the unexpected record warmth in January and March 2025, this chance had briefly climbed as high as 34%, but subsequent cooling, especially in May – July, has eliminated nearly any chance of a record annual average during 2025.
At present, we consider there to be an 4.2% chance that 2025 will have an annual-average temperature anomaly more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above our 1850-1900 average.
Estimated Probability of 2025 annual average final rankings:
- 1st – < 1%
- 2nd – 12.2%
- 3rd – 87.8%
- 4th or lower – < 1%
