The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of October 2022.
- Globally, October 2022 was the 3rd warmest October since records began in 1850.
- On land, October 2022 was the warmest October ever measured.
- Warm conditions occurred in Europe, the Middle East, northern Asia, and northern North America.
- Unusually cool conditions were present in Australia, the Equatorial Pacific, southeast United States, and central Antarctica.
- Moderate La Niña conditions are present, and La Niña is expected to continue until next year.
- 2022 is likely to the be the 4th or 5th warmest year.
Global Summary
Globally, October 2022 has been nominally the third warmest October since records began in 1850. This October is slightly cooler than two previous Octobers (2015 & 2019), essentially tied with October 2021, and slightly warmer than October 2018. All other previously observed years had an October significantly cooler than in 2022.
The global mean temperature in October 2022 was 1.05 ± 0.08 °C (1.89 ± 0.14 °F) above the 1951 to 1980 average, which is a sharp increase from September.
This is equivalent to being 1.37 ± 0.09 °C (2.46 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, which is frequently used as a benchmark for the preindustrial period.
The global mean temperature anomaly in October 2022 was a sharp increase from September 2022, and noticeably warmer than other months this year, with the exception of March. The relatively sharp increase in October temperatures was driven mainly by unusually warm temperatures in many land areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Temperatures in October were close to the long-term trend line despite the cooling effect of the ongoing La Niña conditions.
Spatial Variation
October 2022 continues the ongoing pattern of widespread warmth, though with some notable exceptions. Particularly warm conditions were present in Europe, parts of the Middle East, northern Asia, northern parts of North America, and southern Africa. Record setting warmth was also present in significant portions of the North Atlantic, the North and South Pacific, and parts of the Southern Ocean. Particularly cool conditions were present in Australia, the southeastern United States, central Antarctica, and the Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
We estimate that 4.6% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest October average, and 75% of the Earth’s surface was significantly warm when compared to their local average during the period 1951 to 1980. In addition, 0.06% of the Earth’s surface had their locally coldest October.
The large cool area in the Eastern Pacific is consistent with the ongoing La Niña conditions.
Over land regions, 2022 was the warmest October ever observed, marginally exceeding the previous record set in 2021. The land average was 1.61 ± 0.10 °C (2.89 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1951 to 1980 average. This is a sharp increase of ~0.5 °C (~0.9 °F) from September, which was only the 8th warmest September on land. This warming is particularly prominent in the Northern Hemisphere.
October 2022 was the 6th warmest October in the oceans, recorded as 0.62 ± 0.10 °C (1.11 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1951 to 1980 average. This is largely indistinguishable from other recent years, though markedly cooler than in 2015 and 2019. This relatively low rank is influenced, in part, by the cooling effects of the ongoing La Niña event.
During the record warm land average, a number of locations experienced their locally warmest October. One such location was Switzerland in central Europe. This broke the Swiss record previously set in 2021, and was 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) warmer than any October observed prior to 1995.
La Niña
October 2022 had well-defined moderate La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The La Niña phenomenon, associated with relatively cool water in the Eastern equatorial Pacific, is a form of seasonal weather variability that is generally associated with cooler global average temperatures. The current La Niña event began in 2020 and has exhibited surprising longevity. This La Niña is likely to continue into the next year. The CPC/IRI analysis suggests that La Niña conditions are likely over the rest of the year, with only a < 10% chance of a shift to El Niño conditions before the middle of 2023.
Year to Date
June, July, August, and October have each been only slightly below their corresponding monthly records; however, January through May and September were more noticeably below their corresponding records. So far, every month in 2022 has been at least 1.1 °C (2.0 °F) warmer than the 1850-1900 average. As a result, 2022 is currently positioned as the 5th warmest year.
The most prominent spatial features of year-to-date temperatures are the cool La Niña pattern in the Pacific, warmth over Asia and Europe, and record warmth in the North and South Pacific. Year-to-date, 7.8% of the Earth’s surface has experienced record warmth. No part of the Earth’s surface has been record cold in its year-to-date average.
Rest of 2022
The ongoing La Niña event makes it certain that 2022 will be cooler than recent record warm years; however, 2022 is nearly certain to be either the 4th or 5th warmest year overall.
The statistical approach that we use, looking at conditions in recent months, believes that 2022 is very likely to be the 4th or 5th warmest year in the instrumental record, with about a 98% chance of one of these outcomes. It is very unlikely (< 1%) that the remainder of 2022 warms enough for 2022 to be within the top 3 warmest years. It is also very unlikely that 2022 will be any cooler than the 6th warmest, which means that this year is very likely to still surpass all years prior to 2015.
Likelihood of final 2022 ranking:
- 1st place (< 1 %)
- Top 3 overall (< 1 %)
- 4th place (33 %)
- 5th place (65 %)
- 6th place (2 %)
- Top 6 overall (> 99 %)
Methodology
The Berkeley Earth global temperature data set is ordinarily a combination of Berkeley Earth land surface temperature data and an interpolated ocean sea surface temperature field derived from the HadSST4 data set. The HadSST data set is built upon multiple third-party data collections of direct ocean temperature measurements from ships, buoys, and other platforms. During most of 2021, HadSST updates were frequently subject to delays of weeks or months due to delays in the third-party data sources that it relied on. Due to these delays, Berkeley Earth updates were also frequently delayed.
Due to the ongoing pattern of delays, we have taken the unusual step of preparing this monthly temperature report using an alternative set of sea surface temperature data. The data set adopted for this purpose is the sea surface temperature data from the Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis. This alternative data is only used for October 2022 during which HadSST4 is not yet available. The ERA5 data has been reprocessed to make it more similar to the resolution of our previous analysis and local anomaly baselines have adjusted to match the 1980 to 2021 period in HadSST4.
We believe that this substitute data should provide a good indication of current global ocean conditions.
However, due to difference between ERA5 and HadSST4, we do observe more small-scale variation in the data processed this way and estimates of temperature ranks for assessing local records may sometimes be unreliable in the ocean. In addition, we have increased the reported uncertainty on the ocean averages to include an estimate of the systematic differences between HadSST4 and ERA5.
Though we have adopted ERA5 ocean data for these reports in order to provide timely temperature updates, the gridded data sets appearing on the Berkeley Earth website will continue to use only HadSST as described in the associated documentation. As a result, updates to some of the gridded data sets are likely to continue to be delayed.
