March 2026 Temperature Update

The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of March 2026.

• March 2026 was nominally the 4^th warmest March on record behind 2025, 2024, and 2016, though with uncertainty that effectively leaves it tied with the first through sixth warmest Marches. The global average was 1.45 ± 0.11 °C (2.61 ± 0.21 °F) above the 1850-1900 average.
• Land temperatures averaged 2.05 ± 0.17 °C (3.68 ± 0.31 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, ranking as nominally the 6^th warmest March for terrestrial regions.
• Ocean temperatures were 1.08 ± 0.15 °C (1.95 ± 0.26 °F) above the 1850-1900 average, making it nominally the 2^nd warmest March for ocean surfaces.
• March temperatures were particularly unusual in North America with large areas of record warmth in the United States alongside unusually cold conditions in Canada.
• As of March, the Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state trending warmer. Many forecasts now expect a strong El Niño to develop in mid to late 2026.
• 5.6% of Earth’s surface experienced a record high March monthly average, with a higher contribution from ocean surfaces.
• 2026 now has a 5% likelihood to be the warmest year on record.

Global Summary

March 2026 was nominally the 4^th warmest March on record, behind March 2025, 2024, and 2026 with a monthly global average of 1.45 ± 0.11 °C (2.61 ± 0.21 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. However, it only marginally exceeded the conditions in March 2023 and 2017. Given the tight grouping of these historical months and the uncertainties, any ranking for March 2026 between 1^st and 6^th could be considered reasonable.

Month-to-month temperatures held steady in March 2026, remaining similar to February 2026 and late 2025. However, conditions remain modestly cooler than during the bulk of 2023 and 2024.

We note also that the value for February 2026 has been revised downward relative to the assessment made a month ago as a result of incorporating additional observations not previously available.

March 2026 was slightly cooler than recent years, but still at least 0.3 °C (0.5 °F) warmer than any March prior to 2016.

The 12-month moving average is now near the long term trend line. The short-term natural variability contributing to anomalous warmth in 2023 & 2024 has dissipated, and historically we would usually see temperatures now temporarily dip below the long-term trend. Short-term variability is an inherent part of the weather and climate and is to be expected even alongside persistent long-term global warming.

Spatial Variation

In March 2026, elevated temperatures were present in most regions. These were especially prominent across the United States, Europe, most of Asia, parts of Antarctica, and parts of both the Pacific and Atlantic. Cooler temperatures were present in Northern Canada, part of Northern Asia, and Australia.

5.6 % of Earth’s surface experienced a record high March monthly average (4.9% of land and 6.0% of ocean surfaces), with record warmth in parts of the North Pacific Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, the United States, Scandinavia. A few areas had record low monthly averages in March in Northern Canada and Alaska.

In Berkeley Earth’s estimation, 9 countries set record warm national averages in March, including: Belarus, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Madagascar, Mexico, Norway, Sweden. The contiguous United States (excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and overseas territories) also set record high average for March.

Over land regions, March 2026 was nominally the 6^th warmest March since 1850, with a terrestrial average of 2.05 ± 0.17 °C (3.68 ± 0.31 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This is modestly cooler than March 2025, 2024, and 2023, and sharply cooler than the record land-average warmth in March 2016.

On a month-to-month basis, March 2026 is significantly cooler than February 2026, but similar to months at the end of 2025.

We note however that March 2026 does have some unusual gaps in spatial coverage over Africa due to ongoing delays in weather station availability. As additional weather station data becomes available, this ranking may be modestly revised higher or lower as appropriate.

Average ocean temperatures in March 2026 were equal to 1.08 ± 0.15 °C (1.95 ± 0.26 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. This was nominally the 2^nd warmest March on record (behind 2024), but with large uncertainties that overlap with 2025 as well as some colder years.

On a month-to-month basis the ocean average is little changed from February and remains warmer than La Niña cooled values in late 2025.

Continuing NOAA Data Problems

The current monthly report is prepared using data available to Berkeley Earth as of early April 2026. However, we are continuing to work around problems with NOAA input data. Since late August 2025, core NOAA climate archives, including the Global Summary of the Day, Global Historical Climatology Network – Daily, and Global Historical Climatology Network – Monthly (GHCN-M), have been either broken or in a degraded state. Because Berkeley Earth draws from multiple data sources, we are resistant to these problems but not entirely immune to them.

While we ordinarily expect to have weather data from ~20,000 weather stations per month in the modern period, the disruption to NOAA services has cut that number to ~15,000 during late 2025. Due to additional delays in reporting, the March data set is reduced even further to ~6,700 stations. This number of weather stations remains more than adequate for constraining the global average, but regional gaps have left unusual holes on our maps, especially for Africa.

We wish to note that this situation has been slowly improving with some of the missing stations having been restored in recent months. NOAA’s launch of the Synoptic Summary of the Day (a replacement for the Global Summary of the Day) should also help.

Drawing on alternative data sources allows us to fill some of the gaps created by degraded and missing NOAA data aggregation services, but we still have less data than we would ordinarily expect.

It is normal to encounter sporadic delays in weather station reporting, and as a result, it is also normal to revise the analysis as more data becomes available. However, the current disruption resulting from the loss of NOAA services is larger than the typical delays and more spatially clustered. We expect the problems with NOAA data aggregation will ultimately be temporary, as the underlying weather stations still exist, and it is simply a matter of getting suitable access. Future revisions, Incorporating additional data, should reduce the current uncertainties to a more normal level.

In particular, we not that the average for February 2026 has been revised downward following an updated analysis using ~10,000 weather stations (up from ~6,000 initially). This revision was within the previously stated uncertainty range, but had the effect of lowering February 2026 from the 2^nd warmest to the 4^th warmest February in our analysis. The downward revision for February 2026 also redce the odds of 2026 becoming a record warm year.

ENSO Conditions

With only three months completed, the forecast annual average of 2026 remains subject to considerable uncertainty. Despite the forecast for a strong El Niño, the chances of 2026 reaching record warmth has fallen to only 5%. This down from the 16% estimated last month. Most of this downward revision is due to the negative reassessment of the February 2026 temperatures. This compares to a 10% chance record warmth in 2026 estimated at the start of the year.

More likely 2026 will become the 2^nd warmest year (36% chance), 3^rd warmest (20%) or 4^th warmest year (29%). The final ranking will likely depend strongly on the timing and strength of any El Niño event and the associated natural variability.

Additionally, there is a 9.5% chance that global average temperature anomalies for 2026 will exceed the 1.5 C (2.7 °F) benchmark above the 1850-1900 average.

Estimated Probability of 2026 annual average final rankings:

• 1^st – 5.2%
• 2^nd – 31%
• 3^rd – 25%
• 4^th – 38%
• 5^th or lower – <1%