November 2019 Temperature Update

The following is a summary of global temperature conditions in Berkeley Earth’s analysis of November 2019.

Globally, November 2019 was the second warmest November since records began in 1850.

The global mean temperature was 0.88 ± 0.05 °C above the 1951 to 1980 average.  This is equivalent to being 1.26 ± 0.07 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average, which is frequently used as a benchmark for the preindustrial period.


November 2019 was slightly cooler than November 2015 (by ~0.05 °C), but warmer than all other Novembers since global temperature estimates began in 1850. In part, November 2015 was warmer due to a major El Niño event that peaked in late 2015 and early 2016. This November, conditions in the tropical Pacific are considered to be neutral with neither El Niño warming nor La Niña cooling present. This state is expected to continue for at least the next few months.

Temperature anomalies in November 2019 showed an appreciable decline from October 2019.  However, this had the effect of returning global conditions to a state similar to those observed in May through September, following an unusually warm October.


Spatially, November 2019 continues the pattern of wide-spread warmth. Unusually warm conditions were present in much of the Arctic, parts of Africa, South America, Europe, and Antarctica. Unusually cold conditions were present across central Asia and parts of North America. In addition, very warm ocean conditions were present across parts of the Indian Ocean, Southern Atlantic, and Northern Pacific. We estimate that 7% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest November average, compared to only 0.05% that experienced a locally coldest November.


Over land regions, 2019 was the 7th warmest November, coming in as 1.16 ± 0.09 °C above the 1951 to 1980 average.  It was the 2nd warmest November in the oceans, recorded as 0.62 ± 0.07 °C above the 1951 to 1980 average.  The warmest November on land occurred in 2010, while the warmest in the oceans occurred in 2015.



After 11 months, the Earth in 2019 has been marked by above average temperatures nearly everywhere, with the notable exception of a relatively cool conditions in part of North America.


So far, only three of eleven months in 2019 have been the warmest recorded, though all of the months in 2019 have been within the top 5 warmest.


It appears nearly certain (>99% likelihood) that 2019 will conclude as the second-warmest year since measurements began in 1850, behind only the exceptional warmth of 2016.


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