Zeke Hausfather

March 2025 tied 2024 and 2016 for the warmest March on record. 2025 has a 34% chance to be a record-breaking year. ENSO transitioned to a neutral state.

February 2025 was the third warmest February on record, behind 2024 and 2020. However, there is now a ~38% chance that 2025 will be the warmest year on record, which is 8% more than the estimate made last month.

Globally, January 2025 was the warmest January on record, surpassing January 2024 by 0.09 °C. This is a surprising result given the La Niña event that began in December. There is now a ~30% chance that 2025 will be the warmest year on record (up from ~6% from the start of the year).

The record-shattering heat over the summer has raised the possibility that 2023 could finish the year above the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement. Zeke Hausfather examines the nuances of tihis threshold across the different temperature reporting data sets.

Amidst a summer of extremes, this analysis by Berkeley Earth’s Zeke Hausfather examines how extreme temperatures are trending relative to climate models.

In this guest blog post, originally published in Carbon Brief, Berkeley Earth Research Scientist Dr. Zeke Hausfather fact checks the recent reemergence of claims that global warming has ‘paused’ over the last eight years.