In March 2026, the Western U.S. heatwave generated a +11.5°F monthly anomaly, unprecedented in 170 years of instrumental observations and second only to the Dust Bowl in station-record breadth. In this Special Report, we examine the observational record, attribution, and the possible emergence of a more significant climate signal: evidence of increasing temperature variance that mean-shift models could systematically miss.
March 2026 was the 4th warmest March on record. La Niña has ended and El Niño is expected to return in coming months. There is a 5% chance that 2026 become a record warm year.
February 2026 was the 2nd warmest February on record behind 2024. La Niña is fading and El Niño is expected to return in coming months. There is a 16% chance that 2026 become a record warm year.
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